Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
